Skip to content

p_infected > susceptibility for high R0 values #226

@denisecammarota

Description

@denisecammarota

Hello! I have been testing the package to model diseases like measles or pertussis with high R0 values and I wanted to know if there are any limitations regarding the range of R0s the calculations of final size are acceptable/doable for. For example, I was replicating the example in: https://epiverse-trace.github.io/finalsize/articles/varying_susceptibility.html using an r0 of 10 and the p_infected that the model returns is bigger than the suscetpibility provided for the different age groups. Code follows:

library(tidyverse)
library(finalsize)

get UK polymod data

polymod <- socialmixr::polymod
contact_data <- socialmixr::contact_matrix(
polymod,
countries = "United Kingdom",
age.limits = c(0, 5, 18, 40, 65),
symmetric = TRUE
)

get the contact matrix and demography data

contact_matrix <- t(contact_data$matrix)
demography_vector <- contact_data$demography$population

scale the contact matrix so the largest eigenvalue is 1.0

contact_matrix <- contact_matrix / max(Re(eigen(contact_matrix)$values))

divide each row of the contact matrix by the corresponding demography

contact_matrix <- contact_matrix / demography_vector

n_demo_grps <- length(demography_vector)

r0 <- 10

susc_variable <- matrix(
data = c(0.75, 0.8, 0.85, 0.9, 1.0)
)
n_susc_groups <- 1L

p_susc_uniform <- matrix(
data = 1.0,
nrow = n_demo_grps,
ncol = n_susc_groups
)

final_size_heterog <- final_size(
r0 = r0,
contact_matrix = contact_matrix,
demography_vector = demography_vector,
susceptibility = susc_variable,
p_susceptibility = p_susc_uniform,
solver = 'iterative'
)

final_size_heterog

The results are:

Image

I noticed that when just calling final_size(15), there are some warnings (though not in the previous case)

Thank you for the attention, as well as the package!

Metadata

Metadata

Assignees

No one assigned

    Labels

    No labels
    No labels

    Type

    No type

    Projects

    No projects

    Milestone

    No milestone

    Relationships

    None yet

    Development

    No branches or pull requests

    Issue actions